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Copper supply shortage to surplus close to|plumber supply

 

Futures daily reported October 8: 11 domestic holiday period, United States economic data continues to go well, the market for United States gradually entered a cycle of rate hikes is expected get stronger, while the dollar gradually into a strong cycle, lay the pattern of medium and long term weak copper prices. SHFE and LME Exchange copper stocks are still at relatively low since 2013, short for copper prices have some support. Technical side, after early after copper prices to remain weak, LME index recently around 6600, COMX index key support level of around 3.0 there are signs of stabilisation. Emergence of the future should pay attention to short-term technical rebound market, but the overall medium-and long-term trend in copper prices continue to look weak.
Dollar uptrend established
Overall view, with United States real estate market and manufacturing of recovery accelerated, its employment growth and consumption increased of benign cycle also more solid, market for United States gradually entered hike cycle of expected more strongly, plus emerging market cooling promoted of hot return, makes dollars will gradually entered strong cycle, some financial property strong of bulk merchandise, as precious metals, and basic metal, varieties will ushered in more long of bear cycle. At present compared to other varieties of metal, copper still enjoyed a higher financial premium dollars in return will make their financial properties desalination prices gradually return to cost close to the line.
Supplied loose into refined copper from copper concentrate market
At present, the market for the supply of copper concentrate will enter basic expected easing cycle. ICSG estimated 2015, global copper supply capacity or growth 8.21% per cent, the growth rate significantly higher than that of 2005-2012 1.5% of the average growth rate of the global copper concentrate supply. Among them, the surplus expected mainly in copper concentrate processing charges on the rise.
Data show that in September, the copper concentrate TC/RC up to 125-135 USD/ton respectively, 12.5-13.5 cents per pound level, much higher than the possibility of copper concentrates at the beginning. In the next period of time, as mine supply and gradually open up, processing fees rising trend is obvious, will stimulate the enthusiasm of domestic smelters, copper concentrate oversupply situation will gradually transfer to the refined copper market.
The latest data show in August, refined copper production increased from the previous month, 7.4%, to 680128 tons, beating record November 2013 to 654803 tons, 20.16% higher than the same period last year. 2014 1 in August, China's refined copper production rose to 11.17%, from 4.93 million tons. Message from metal mesh, due to rising costs of processing Chinese copper smelters planned over the next one to two months on the global market continues to increase copper concentrate procurement. The recent Pan Pacific copper company said in a statement, expected in 2015, global copper supply surplus of 193,000 tons. Longer term, supply easing will transfer to the refined copper from copper concentrate market, copper price suppression.
Future vision and strategy recommendations
Based on the above analysis, the copper market will still be in short supply in the future and gradually move closer to the excess supply, in the absence of copper production companies or workers in cases of large-scale strikes, copper supplies are expected to increase in the third quarter, long-term supply will be more lenient. The demand side, the downward economic fluctuations in China also makes biggest investment in power industry of China's copper consumption than expected. A strong US dollar cycle, copper medium to weak pattern cannot be turned back, a short-term technical rebound should not be overly optimistic. On the operation, the previous location, space can buy and hold, short-term not too empty, to rebound to near critical pressure selling to the relative safety of strategic choices, 48500, 490,001 copper main 1412 contracts concern line near critical pressure

Futures daily reported October 8: 11 domestic holiday period, United States economic data continues to go well, the market for United States gradually entered a cycle of rate hikes is expected get stronger, while the dollar gradually into a strong cycle, lay the pattern of medium and long term weak copper prices. SHFE and LME Exchange copper stocks are still at relatively low since 2013, short for copper prices have some support. Technical side, after early after copper prices to remain weak, LME index recently around 6600, COMX index key support level of around 3.0 there are signs of stabilisation. Emergence of the future should pay attention to short-term technical rebound market, but the overall medium-and long-term trend in copper prices continue to look weak.

 

Dollar uptrend established

 

 

Overall view, with United States real estate market and manufacturing of recovery accelerated, its employment growth and consumption increased of benign cycle also more solid, market for United States gradually entered hike cycle of expected more strongly, plus emerging market cooling promoted of hot return, makes dollars will gradually entered strong cycle, some financial property strong of bulk merchandise, as precious metals, and basic metal, varieties will ushered in more long of bear cycle. At present compared to other varieties of metal, copper still enjoyed a higher financial premium dollars in return will make their financial properties desalination prices gradually return to cost close to the line.

 

 

Supplied loose into refined copper from copper concentrate market

 

 

At present, the market for the supply of copper concentrate will enter basic expected easing cycle. ICSG estimated 2015, global copper supply capacity or growth 8.21% per cent, the growth rate significantly higher than that of 2005-2012 1.5% of the average growth rate of the global copper concentrate supply. Among them, the surplus expected mainly in copper concentrate processing charges on the rise.

 

 

Data show that in September, the copper concentrate TC/RC up to 125-135 USD/ton respectively, 12.5-13.5 cents per pound level, much higher than the possibility of copper concentrates at the beginning. In the next period of time, as mine supply and gradually open up, processing fees rising trend is obvious, will stimulate the enthusiasm of domestic smelters, copper concentrate oversupply situation will gradually transfer to the refined copper market.

 

 

The latest data show in August, refined copper production increased from the previous month, 7.4%, to 680128 tons, beating record November 2013 to 654803 tons, 20.16% higher than the same period last year. 2014 1 in August, China's refined copper production rose to 11.17%, from 4.93 million tons. Message from metal mesh, due to rising costs of processing Chinese copper smelters planned over the next one to two months on the global market continues to increase copper concentrate procurement. The recent Pan Pacific copper company said in a statement, expected in 2015, global copper supply surplus of 193,000 tons. Longer term, supply easing will transfer to the refined copper from copper concentrate market, copper price suppression.

 

 

Future vision and strategy recommendations

 

 

Based on the above analysis, the copper market will still be in short supply in the future and gradually move closer to the excess supply, in the absence of copper production companies or workers in cases of large-scale strikes, copper supplies are expected to increase in the third quarter, long-term supply will be more lenient. The demand side, the downward economic fluctuations in China also makes biggest investment in power industry of China's copper consumption than expected. A strong US dollar cycle, copper medium to weak pattern cannot be turned back, a short-term technical rebound should not be overly optimistic. On the operation, the previous location, space can buy and hold, short-term not too empty, to rebound to near critical pressure selling to the relative safety of strategic choices, 48500, 490,001 copper main 1412 contracts concern line near critical pressure

 

 

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